Global Impact: William Lai’s presidential victory in Taiwan does little to cool US-mainland China tensions as self-ruled island looks to the future

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world

In this issue, we look back at how William Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election and ponder what the results mean for relations with mainland China and beyond

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Published: 2:00pm, 22 Jan 2024

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Taiwan’s much-watched presidential election ended last Saturday, with William Lai Ching-te, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) claiming victory in the poll that determines the trajectory of the self-ruled island and affects regional security.

The ruling DPP secured an unprecedented third straight presidential term, but failed to retain its legislative majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, marking the first time in 16 years that no party has had an absolute majority.

Such results add a note of uncertainty to Lai’s administration, as he will face the prospect of a hostile legislature that could obstruct any potential pro-independence agenda.

In the three-way race, Lai fended off his rivals from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) – both perceived as friendlier to Beijing – by winning 5.59 million votes, or 40 per cent of the electorate.

In the legislature, which requires at least 57 seats for an outright majority, the DPP retained just 51 of its previous 61 seats, while the KMT added 14 to take its tally to 52 lawmakers and the TPP won eight seats, marking the first time that a third party has had a swing vote.