China’s GDP growth forecasts edge up as foreign banks respond to stimulus moves

Some international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 in the wake of the raft of stimulus rolled out since late September, tipping Beijing to reach its target of “around 5 per cent”.

Forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2024 – a year addled by tepid retail sales and cool property prices – from the likes of UBS, Moody’s Analytics, Goldman Sachs and Nomura have reached as high as 4.95 per cent.

That lifted growth to 4.8 per cent in the first three quarters of the year.

Swiss investment bank UBS on Monday raised its forecast for the world’s second-largest economy from 4.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent “in light of the stronger-than-expected third quarter GDP growth reading and recently announced policy push”, said the research note from its China economist Wang Tao.