China December trade data bad, but likely to get worse this year
- Analysts surprised by unexpected December drop in Chinese exports and imports
- December data show full impact of trade war on Chinese trade for first time
China’s export and import figures were much worse than expected in December, underscoring the rapid weakening of the Chinese economy.
Monday’s figures suggest the negative impact of the trade war may be greater than Chinese authorities previously estimated, and point to the need for a more rapid and larger economic stimulus to stabilise growth.
However, overall Chinese exports last year were the largest in seven years and the trade surplus with the US reached a record high, boosted by strong gains in the first half of the year and the effects of order front-loading in the second half.
Trade results this year could be quite different, depending on whether China and the US are able to reach a trade deal that rolls back tariffs.
In December, total exports fell to US$221.25 billion, down 1.4 per cent from November and 4.4 per cent from the same month in 2017, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs.
The December drop – the biggest since December 2016, when China grew at its slowest pace since 1990 – was unexpected, with analysts forecasting a 2 per cent rise, according to a Bloomberg survey.