China’s GDP target range gives government leeway for economic growth ahead of 2019 uncertainties
- Premier Li Keqiang tells National People’s Congress on Tuesday that China will aim to achieve an economic growth this year that falls in a range of 6.0 to 6.5 per cent
- Beijing’s policy efforts geared towards stabilising growth, not stimulus, showing China’s acceptance of a modest slowdown in 2019
China has laid a “bottom line” for economic growth but granted itself a bit leeway in managing uncertainties by targeting a range instead of a specific rate of gross domestic product growth for 2019, analysts said.
Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress on Tuesday that China will aim to achieve an economic growth this year that falls in a range of 6.0 to 6.5 per cent.
This means any rate below 6.0 per cent will be viewed as a failure, while any rate above 6.5 per cent will be seen as unnecessary.
The target of 6 to 6.5 per cent is slightly lower than the “about 6.5 per cent” target for last year and an actual 6.6 per cent growth, showing Beijing’s acceptance of a modest slowdown in 2019.
However, the lower limit of the range, instead of 5.5 per cent or less, sends a message that Beijing has a “bottom line” for growth amid uncertainties, and that it will not tolerate a deep fall in growth rate, according to analysts.
At the same time, the upper limit of 6.5 per cent shows that the Chinese government has no plan for an all-out stimulus to push economic growth.
“China’s economic growth faces many uncertainties this years and it’s hard to predict all the changes … the growth target has to be flexible,” said Huang Shouhong, the head of research office of the State Council who is one of writers of the government work report.