China economy would be the big winner from a no-deal Brexit, UN study finds
- In a no-deal Brexit scenario, China’s exports to the United Kingdom would rise under lower tariff rates than those used by the European Union
- The United States and Japan also benefit from lower tariffs, while EU nations would lose preferential access to the UK market, a United Nations study found
China would be the big winner, should the United Kingdom leave the European Union without a deal, according to a new study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
A no-deal Brexit would boost Chinese exports to the UK by US$10 billion, or 17 per cent of its current exports to the country. US exports would rise by US$5.34 billion while Japan would gain US$4.9 billion, the study found.
The study, led by researchers Alessandro Nicita, Ksenia Koloskova and Mesut Saygili, was released as UK Prime Minister Theresa May was back in Brussels attempting to negotiate a Brexit deadline extension, so that the UK Parliament can agree an exit plan.
It was based on the hypothesis that the UK will leave the EU without an agreements in place about what the future bilateral relationship would be like in future.
Many analysts have warned that this would be the worst-case scenario for the UK economy. Under this scenario, the UK would crash out of the European single market and customs union, meaning there would be an immediate end to free trade between the UK and other EU member states.
