China economy would be the big winner from a no-deal Brexit, UN study finds
- In a no-deal Brexit scenario, China’s exports to the United Kingdom would rise under lower tariff rates than those used by the European Union
- The United States and Japan also benefit from lower tariffs, while EU nations would lose preferential access to the UK market, a United Nations study found
China would be the big winner, should the United Kingdom leave the European Union without a deal, according to a new study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
A no-deal Brexit would boost Chinese exports to the UK by US$10 billion, or 17 per cent of its current exports to the country. US exports would rise by US$5.34 billion while Japan would gain US$4.9 billion, the study found.
The study, led by researchers Alessandro Nicita, Ksenia Koloskova and Mesut Saygili, was released as UK Prime Minister Theresa May was back in Brussels attempting to negotiate a Brexit deadline extension, so that the UK Parliament can agree an exit plan.
It was based on the hypothesis that the UK will leave the EU without an agreements in place about what the future bilateral relationship would be like in future.
Many analysts have warned that this would be the worst-case scenario for the UK economy. Under this scenario, the UK would crash out of the European single market and customs union, meaning there would be an immediate end to free trade between the UK and other EU member states.
It would mean that border checks could be reintroduced between the UK and Ireland, which provides the only land border between the UK and EU. It would disrupt transport between the UK and EU, while the National Health Service and many commercial bodies have been stockpiling medicines and goods in the fear that the flow of goods is interrupted.
However, for non-EU countries, no-deal Brexit may mean they can access the UK market on lower tariffs than they did under EU trade terms.