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China economy
EconomyChina Economy

African swine fever: ‘not enough pork in the whole world’ to fill China’s supply gap

  • Rabobank estimates that China could lose up to 200 million pigs to disease or slaughter, almost three times the number of pigs in the United States
  • Despite heavy trade war tariffs, Chinese buyers are importing US pork, betting on a US-China trade deal

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Financial services firm Rabobank estimates that China could lose up to 200 million pigs to disease or slaughter during the epidemic, almost three times the pig population in the United States. Photo: Reuters
Finbarr Berminghamin Brussels

There is not enough pork in “the whole world combined” to fill the potential supply shortfall that will hit China later this year, market analysts have warned.

Pork exporting countries around the world are scrambling to fill the supply gap in China as an African swine fever epidemic sweeps across the country.

Financial services firm Rabobank estimates that China could lose up to 200 million pigs to disease or slaughter during the epidemic, almost three times the pig population in the United States.

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China is the world’s biggest pork producer, with roughly 433 million pigs, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). And the loss of half of the country’s pigs could push prices up by as much as a 70 per cent, a Chinese agriculture ministry official said last week.

Rabobank senior analyst Chenjun Pan said pork production would fall in China this year and next.

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