Trade war with US could lead to economic ‘cold war’ for China, Beijing researchers say
- ‘China’s Economic Security Outlook’ sees tit-for-tat tariff war with the US and the broad hostility as a major risk endangering China’s ‘economic security’
- Beijing and Washington have conducted nine rounds of trade negotiations ahead of an eventual meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
Further escalation of the trade war with the United States could lead to an economic “cold war”, according to a risk map outlined by a Beijing-based research team, which highlights the most serious dangers to China’s economy.
The tit-for-tat tariff war with the US and the broad hostility is seen as a major risk endangering China’s “economic security”, along with a property bubble, local debt, unemployment and online financing including peer-to-peer lending, according to the latest edition of China’s Economic Security Outlook.
“If the trade friction escalates further, it may eventually lead to a new cold war,” the book warned.
The research was coordinated by Liu Wei, monetary policy adviser for China’s central bank and president of Renmin University of China, and Su Jian, a professor at Peking University in Beijing, pulling together expert views from the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Information Centre and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
If the trade friction escalates further, it may eventually lead to a new cold war,
The book does not take into account the latest negotiations between the world’s two largest economies in March and April, but reflects a widespread concern among Beijing researchers over China’s future role in the global value chain.