China’s population to peak in 2023, five years earlier than official estimates, new research shows
- Findings suggest Beijing waited too long to abandon the one-child policy, founder of one of the firms behind the report says
China’s population will peak in 2023, five years earlier than official forecasts, according to a new report.
Tony Nash, CEO and founder of Complete Intelligence, one of the co-authors of the report, said the findings should be a cause for concern for Beijing’s policymakers, who waited too long to lift the controversial one-child policy for its rapidly greying society.
“At a macro level, it means China’s peak population moves forward from 2028 to 2023, when the population hits 1.41 billion persons,” the report, co-authored by Global Demographics, said.
The report said a major driver in the falling birth rate was the decline in the number of women of child-bearing age, with the population of those women – aged between 15 and 49 – expected to decrease by 56 million between 2018 and 2033.
The forecasters said there would be 27 million fewer children aged nine or younger by 2028, a 17 per cent reduction from today, putting a damper on related consumer markets including toys, clothing, milk-based products, education and childcare.
It estimated that the population of preschool-aged children – those up to age four – peaked in 2017 at 84 million. The annual decline in this age group would be 2.8 per cent, the authors estimated, with the size of the group shrinking to 57.4 million in 2033.