Will the trade war mean US pig farmers miss out on their ‘single greatest sales opportunity’ in China?

China’s pig population is down by 20 per cent due to African swine fever, with predictions that it will need to import 41 per cent more pork to meet demand

But the tariff battle between Beijing and Washington is leaving American farmers on the outside as European producers like Spain and Germany take advantage

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China’s pig population in April is down by 20 per cent – or around 100 million pigs – from a year earlier. Photo: AFP

Published: 5:00pm, 19 Jun 2019Updated: 5:54pm, 19 Jun 2019

This story is part of an ongoing series on US-China relations produced jointly by the South China Morning Post and POLITICO, with reporting from Asia and the United States.

With African swine fever cutting China's pig population in half, it may be no longer able to satisfy the nation's demand for pork, theoretically opening the door for farmers in the United States to fill the void.

But in retaliation to the tariffs placed on Chinese imports by US President Donald Trump, pork going to China from the US now faces a 62 per cent levy, essentially making American products too expensive for consumers in China. It is also leaving exporters frustrated that they cannot take advantage of a prime opportunity to gain long-term access to a lucrative market.

American pig farmers are estimated to be losing out on US$1 billion in exports as a result of the continued tensions between the two global economic powers. Although some US pork products are making their way to China despite the steep duties, in the long term, American producers are haplessly losing out to countries like Brazil and Germany in the global race to feed China’s insatiable taste for pork.

“We certainly want to retain as much of our business as possible [in China], but when you have a tariff that’s five times higher than the standard, that’s a significant headwind,” said Joe Schuele, vice-president of communications for the US Meat Export Federation.

The longer trade negotiations with China drag on, the more American farmers will see their window of opportunity close as global competitors claim parts of the Chinese market share.