US must concede final 20 per cent of demands to agree trade war deal with China, leading Chinese expert says

Jin Canrong, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China in Beijing, says China had agreed to 80 per cent of a deal as far back as May

‘Between 60 and 70 per cent’ chance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and American counterpart Donald Trump agreeing a deal in November if US can lower demands

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US trade representative Robert Lighthizer (left), US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He are expected to continue face-to-face talks in Washington in October. Photo: AFP

Published: 6:40pm, 9 Sep 2019Updated: 11:40am, 10 Sep 2019

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump could reach a deal to end the ongoing trade war by their next scheduled meeting in November, but only if Washington is able to drop the final 20 per cent of American demands currently on the table which are impossible for Being to agree to, according to a leading Chinese expert.

China has already agreed to 80 per cent of demands for a trade deal, but the final portion of Washington’s demands are seen by Beijing as an infringement on its sovereignty, said Jin Canrong, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China in Beijing, on his social media account.

Jin believes the odds are “between 60 and 70 per cent” that China and the US can reach a trade deal by the time Xi and Trump are likely to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile, but only if the US can lower or even drop certain demands.

“It’s not a 100 per cent thing, and it’s possible that the negotiations will collapse,” Jin warned. “The major reason is that China has already offered to make huge concessions.”

The Politburo would never agree to these terms. It would be forfeiting sovereignty and humiliating the nation

Jin Canrong

China had already agreed to about 80 per cent of US demands before the bilateral talks came to a halt in May, including “buying US goods, opening markets to US investors and making policy improvements in certain areas”, Jin said.

According to Jin, who did not reveal the source of his information but is known to be well-connected in Beijing, the final 20 per cent includes completely abandoning the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy programme, a plan to cut the share of the state in the overall economy from 38 per cent to 20 per cent, as well as an implementing an enforcement check mechanism that would allow the US to dig into the books of different levels of the Chinese government.

“The Politburo would never agree to these terms,” Jin said, referring to China’s supreme decision-making body. “It would be forfeiting sovereignty and humiliating the nation.”

“For the US, the choice is zero or 80 per cent [of what it wants],” Jin said. “The option of getting 100 per cent doesn’t exist … my conclusion is that the US has to give up the final 20 per cent [of its demands].”

China’s top trade envoys, led by Vice-Premier Liu He, are expected to fly to Washington early next month to start a new round of face-to-face trade talks with their US counterparts led by trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.