China could ‘smooth over’ census data to meet growth target, achieve goal of doubling size of economy by 2020
- Beijing is committed to doubling the size of the economy between 2010 and 2020, but this would require a growth rate of 6.2 per cent in 2020 compared to 2010
- This will be a challenge, since the quarterly growth rate slowed substantially to only 6.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest on record
China’s desperation to achieve an economic growth of above 6.0 per cent in 2019 and 2020 could see the government turn to a wide-reaching census that could give it the numerical ammunition it needs to “smooth over” annual data and boost the growth path that would otherwise miss the mark, some analysts believe.
China has a grand aim of creating a “moderately prosperous society” by next year, the cornerstones of which are a doubling of national gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income in 2020 compared to 2010.
As it stands, that would require achieving economic growth of 6.2 per cent per year, said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Unless there is drastic modification in the upcoming economic census, China has to maintain an average growth of 6.2 per cent [this year and next year] to achieve the goal [of doubling GDP]
But Ding predicts that Beijing will find a way to push growth above 6.0 per cent, as “it is impossible for the central government to give up this goal [to double GDP] as they have to deliver this economic achievement in 2020”.
“Unless there is drastic modification in the upcoming economic census, China has to maintain an average growth of 6.2 per cent [this year and next year] to achieve the goal [of doubling GDP],” Ding said.
The solution for policymakers may come in China’s fourth economic census conducted this year but reflecting data from 2018, the results of which could be released by the end of the year, following previous editions in 2004, 2008 and 2013.