China to revise GDP data based on fourth economic census

Beijing’s latest census of the industrial and services sectors will result in a revision to GDP levels, says the National Bureau of Statistics

An upwards revision, which has followed previous censuses, would help the government meet its target to double size of economy between 2010 and 2020

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GDP revisions following China’s previous three censuses were all upwards. Photo: AP

Published: 7:30pm, 20 Nov 2019Updated: 11:01pm, 20 Nov 2019

China’s government on Wednesday released the results of its latest census, a “physical inspection” of the nation’s industrial and services activities, and is likely to revise previous gross domestic product calculations based on the data, officials said.

Revised 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) estimates would be published in the near future, Li Xiaochao, deputy commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference announcing the results of the fourth National Economic Census.

If data for previous years is revised up, it could help the government meet its ambitious goal to create a “moderately prosperous society” by doubling the size of the economy and per capita income between 2010 and 2020.

Without an upwards revision, the Chinese economy would likely have to grow by 6.1 per cent or 6.2 per cent next year to reach the goal, a rate that most analysts say is unlikely given the continued economic slowdown this year. Chinese GDP rose by 6 per cent in the third quarter – the lowest growth rate since quarterly data was first released in 1992 – and it is expected to slow further in the fourth quarter.

The economic census has compiled detailed data on China’s secondary and tertiary industries in 2018, including but not limited to the number of various types of enterprises, the number of their employees, as well as the size of their assets, liabilities, and operating income.

“Compared with annual statistics, the economic census has far richer basic data, with the changes in data sources providing us with a detailed foundation to revise GDP according to accounting rules. Therefore we will make the adjustments,” Li told the press.

He did not disclose whether the upcoming revision would be greater or smaller than the one after the last census, or whether the change would be upwards or downward.