China revises up 2018 GDP after new census, making it easier to double size of economy in 2020

The National Bureau of Statistics has revised up its 2018 GDP by 2.1 per cent to 91.93 trillion yuan (US$13.1 trillion)

Upwards revision makes it easier for China to reach goal of doubling the size of its economy between 2010 and 2020 with a lower growth rate next year

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China’s 2020 growth rate is widely expected to be below 6 per cent, given growth slipped to 6.0 per cent in the third quarter of this year. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 12:35pm, 22 Nov 2019Updated: 10:45pm, 22 Nov 2019

China announced on Friday that it has revised up its 2018 gross domestic product based on the results of the new national census, making it easier for Beijing to meet its goal of doubling the size of the economy in 2020 from a decade earlier.

The size of 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) was increased 1.9 trillion yuan (US$270 billion), or by 2.1 per cent, to 91.93 trillion yuan (US$13.1 trillion), said the National Bureau of Statistics - roughly equivalent to the entire economy of Vietnam.

The largest contributor to the upwards adjustment was the tertiary sector, which includes the services and other non-agriculture, non-industrial sectors. Census results showed it was about 2 trillion yuan (US$284.3 billion) bigger than original estimates.

Its proportion of total economic output was lifted by 0.9 percentage points to 53.3 per cent. The size of the agriculture sector was revised up slightly, but its share of the total economy was revised down. The industrial sector's size and proportion of total GDP were both revised down.

We know from a few years ago there are things they can do to massage the growth rate

Julian Evans-Pritchard

The statistics bureau did not provide a revised growth rate figure for last year, which was originally reported at 6.6 per cent.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist of Capital Economics in Singapore, said that while it remained unclear exactly what impact the GDP revision would have, there was a chance it would make it easier for China to accomplish its 2020 growth target.

“We know from a few years ago there are things they can do to massage the growth rate,” he said.

Based on the original 2018 GDP figure, the world’s second largest economy needs to grow at least 6.1 per cent in 2020 to achieve the goal of achieving a “moderately prosperous society” with GDP and per capita income double the level of 2010. The goal was set by former president Hu Jintao in 2012 and is seen an important benchmark to judging the success of the Chinese Communist Party’s economic management.