Advertisement
China 2020 GDP growth target seen to be set at ‘around 6 per cent’ at top economic policy meeting
- The Central Economic Work Conference is to take place in Beijing later this month with trade war uncertainty still hanging over China
- The important policymaking meeting is set to allow modest expansion of fiscal and monetary policies to support economy without resorting to massive stimulus
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
Frank Tangin Beijing
In a tense atmosphere created by slowing Chinese growth, rising inflation and continued uncertainty whether trade tariffs will be rolled back as part of a deal with the United States, hundreds of senior Beijing officials, economic policymakers, provincial governors and heads of state-owned banks will convene for a major annual economic policymaking meeting later this month.
Advertisement
The meeting will decide the economic policy priorities for next year, including setting growth and inflation targets and how much fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed to meet those goals.
The trade war, which has entered its 17th month with no immediate end in sight, will be just one of many economic problems to be discussed at the three-day Central Economic Work Conference at the tightly guarded Jingxi Hotel in Beijing.
The world’s second-largest economy is expected to continue to pursue policies that balance economic growth with risk prevention, employing modest measures to support growth without resorting to the massive stimulus seen after the global financial crisis a decade ago.
But debate at this month’s meeting is expected to include whether to take the steps needed to ensure that the growth rate remains at or above 6 per cent next year, how to defuse the nation’s ticking debt time bomb and the consequences of a further decoupling of the Chinese and US economies.
The government’s management of the economy next year will be a big test for Beijing’s top leadership, headed by President Xi Jinping, who has vowed to steer the world’s most populous country towards the 2020 milestone of building a well-off society.
Beijing has kept sending the message in recent months that the slowdown is gradual and this is OK as long as the labour market is good
Analysts widely expect the meeting to set a growth target of “around 6 per cent” next year, down from the target range of 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent for this year. The new target will be supported by an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), the issuance of more than 3 trillion yuan (US$424 billion) of local special purpose bonds to support local government infrastructure projects and an accommodative monetary policy that modestly reduces the costs of borrowing for consumers and businesses, analysts expect.
Advertisement