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China economy
EconomyChina Economy

China’s industrial engine rebounded strongly last month, amid surprisingly good economic numbers

  • Industrial production, which measures China’s industrial output, including manufacturing, mining and utilities, grew by 6.2 per cent in November
  • Retail sales also performed better than expected, as the Chinese economy surprised on the upside in the last month before a trade deal was reached

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People work at a Huawei factory in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, 10 December 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE
Finbarr Berminghamin BrusselsandOrange Wang

China’s industrial economy rebounded strongly in November, in the last month before a trade deal was reached with the United States that will provide some well-needed tariff relief.

Industrial production, which measures China’s industrial output, including manufacturing, mining and utilities, grew by 6.2 per cent in November, a big improvement on October’s 4.7 per cent growth, which was the second lowest since 2002.
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This was well above a poll of analysts quizzed by Bloomberg, which had forecast 5.0 per cent growth. It was the highest growth since June.

Retail sales, a key measure of consumption in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 8.0 per cent in November, up from 7.2 per cent in October and again higher than the Bloomberg poll, which expected 7.6 per cent growth.

Another key indicator of the health of China’s economy, fixed asset investment, grew by 5.2 per cent in the year-to-date to November. This maintains the lowest monthly investment ever reported in China in October, which has led to fears over confidence and resilience in the Chinese economy.
The numbers will be welcomed in Beijing, with the economy having been under severe pressure over the course of 2019. The trade war with the US has clearly acted as a drag on manufacturing and exports, but after a deal was reached to offer some tariff rollback and the indefinite postponement of new tariffs by both sides, firms might hope for some stability in the coming months.
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“Downward pressure on growth is likely to resurface before long,” said Martin Lynge Rasmussen, a China economist at Capital Economics. “Admittedly, the phase one US-China trade deal could boost both export activity and corporate investment in the near term. But real estate, a key prop to growth in recent quarters, is primed for a moderation as financing to the sector is being squeezed by a regulatory crackdown.”

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