Trade war: China watchers gear up for ‘noisy ceasefire’ despite completion of phase one deal with US

US-China trade war phase one deal largely welcomed, but businesses and former trade officials wary of getting carried away

Geopolitical issues provide ample potential for deal to get interrupted, while text needs to be translated, legally scrubbed and proofread, state media said

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Analysts suggested that with regard the US-China relationship, ‘a noisy ceasefire period awaits’, with ample space for disruption. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 6:05am, 17 Dec 2019Updated: 2:54pm, 17 Dec 2019

It was after midnight, Washington time, when a message came through from a former US official, reading: “Hell of a day! It must have been Friday the 13th!”

The text summed up a roller-coaster week that saw the United States and China agree to the text of a phase one trade deal, the indefinite suspension of new tariffs on both sides due on Sunday, as well as the commitment to keep negotiating to reach a broader phase two deal. That the US devoted much of the week to finalising its revamped Nafta deal with neighbouring Canada and Mexico made the China deal all the more remarkable.

The progression has largely been welcomed. The president of the US Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, Ker Gibbs, said that it “demonstrates commitment and intent on both sides, and that is positive. A phase one deal, even limited in scope, will help build trust and momentum as the negotiating teams take on the more substantive issues”.

However, Gibbs and many others who have followed the US-China trade war for nearly a year and a half, had one question in the cold light of day on Monday: what next?

“A deal like this needs teeth, and it will be several months before we know whether China’s commitments are workable or substantive. The agreement looks promising. Now let's see if it really is.”