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Coronavirus: China’s clobbered economy set to slow to 4.5 per cent in first quarter but will recover, poll says
- Reuters poll predicts China’s annual economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 to slump to 4.5 per cent from 6.0 per cent in the previous quarter
- Drop expected to drag down the full-year growth rate in 2020 to 5.5 per cent from 6.1 per cent in 2019, its weakest since at least 1990 when comparable records began
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The coronavirus-hit Chinese economy will grow at its slowest rate since the financial crisis in the current quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the downturn will be short-lived if the outbreak is contained.
A Reuters poll of 40 economists based in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, as well as Europe and the United States, from February 7-13 predicted China’s annual economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 to slump to 4.5 per cent from 6.0 per cent in the previous quarter.
That drop was expected to drag down the full-year growth rate in 2020 to 5.5 per cent from 6.1 per cent in 2019, its weakest since at least 1990 when comparable records began.
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However, economists were optimistic the economy would bounce back as soon as the second quarter, with growth then forecast to recover to a median 5.7 per cent, according to the poll.
Some service sector activity simply will be lost … people aren’t going to get their hair cut twice because they missed getting it cut in [the first quarter], or buy two coffees to make up for missed consumption
That figure was pushed higher by several optimistic forecasts from economists based in mainland China. The range was 2.9 per cent-6.5 per cent.
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