Coronavirus: China’s trade economy slowly coming back to life, but US$190 billion export hit expected

China’s seaborne imports and exports are close to returning to normal, data shows, but other metrics suggest more pain lies ahead for its trade economy

Report predicts a US$320 billion hit to global trade in the first quarter, with US$190 billion of that for China, as the coronavirus ravages production and logistics

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Insurance company Euler Hermes suggested that US$320 billion will be trimmed from global trade per quarter due to business disruptions stemming from the coronavirus. Photo: Reuters

Published: 7:15pm, 6 Mar 2020Updated: 10:44pm, 6 Mar 2020

China’s trade economy is slowly coming back to life, but the coronavirus outbreak has already inflicted huge and lasting damage to global trade.

A series of metrics showed that this week, China made significant progress in kick-starting its imports and exports, with seaborne freight levels in particular returning to close to what they were before the crisis put large swathes of China’s economy on lockdown.

Data from Cargometrics, which tracks every vessel on the planet, showed that seaborne imports to China surpassed their pre-Lunar New Year levels and the average daily tonnage of between 2012 and 2019 on seven recent days. Seaborne export cargo have been rebounding more slowly, but came close to matching pre-Lunar New levels on one occasion.

And while these indicators may be welcomed as signs things are starting to return to normal, others provide fewer reasons to be cheerful.

Insurance company Euler Hermes suggested that US$320 billion will be trimmed from global trade per quarter due to business disruptions stemming from the coronavirus.