Coronavirus: China’s economic emergence from lockdown continues with electricity, coal, transport gains

Indicators for electricity and coal power generation, as well as car sales, port traffic and passenger activity, have shown signs of improvement as factories gradually resume production

But economists say the rebound is progressing slower than expected, meaning a full recovery could take longer

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Some economists’ estimates for China’s full year growth rate were cut just to 1 per cent after worse-than-expected economic data for January and February was released on Monday. Photo: AP

Published: 5:00pm, 20 Mar 2020Updated: 11:04pm, 20 Mar 2020

While the coronavirus pandemic is just starting to upend economies in the United States and Europe, preliminary data for March suggested that the recovery of the China economy is making progress with the domestic outbreak seemingly under control.

But with the pace of the recovery in China still modest, a full recovery is likely to take somewhat longer than previously expected, analysts said.

After data released on Monday showed that industrial production, retail sales and asset investment all declined far more than analysts expected in January and February, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planning agency, said this week that both electricity generation and consumption improved in March, indicating greater demand, including crucially from factories.

Power generation capacity on Monday reached 17.8 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), up 9.9 per cent from 16.2 billion kWh at the end of February.

Coal consumption by China’s six major power generation groups also rebounded this week to 76 per cent of pre-Lunar New Year levels, up from 66 per cent in the second half of February, but still below the 95 per cent that would normally have been reached at this stage after the annual holiday.

There has been modest progress in both car sales and port traffic, while passenger traffic activity is also increasing, with some Chinese cities offering free transport.

In the second week of March, car sales jumped to 21,696 from 16,666 a week earlier, according to the China Passenger Car Association.