Coronavirus: can China’s economy rebound in 2020 second quarter with the rest of the world still in trouble?
- Some private economists say China’s economic growth will bounce back in the second quarter, although there is debate about how strong it will be
- China is expected to suffer a first quarter contraction for the first time since 1976, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to damage the global economy
Private economists have begun to echo Beijing’s forecast of a second quarter economic rebound, despite doubts over the strength of recovery while the rest of the world is still grappling with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
A second quarter bounce back would also leave the door open, if only a crack, for the Chinese Communist Party to achieve its goal of doubling the size of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2010 and 2020 – a target that analysts estimate would require a minimum growth rate of 5.6 per cent for the full-year.
The economy’s performance in the second quarter – the period from April to June – will be crucial for the government to get the economy back on track, analysts at Citic Securities, the country’s largest brokerage, wrote in a research note published on Tuesday.
“The second quarter might be an important turning point, as there will be a significant rebound of economic activity from the first quarter,” Citic analysts Zhu Jianfang and Cheng Qiang said. “In the third and fourth quarters, the headline economic growth rate could return to the normal track of 6 per cent or higher.”