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Coronavirus pandemic
EconomyChina Economy

Coronavirus: China seen pursuing lower 2020 economic growth target after historic first quarter contraction

  • China’s economy contracted 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction since quarterly records began in 1992
  • Hubei province reported a 39.2 per cent economic contraction in the first quarter of this year as lockdown measures took a toll

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Independent economists agree it would be unrealistic for Beijing to pursue its original target of 6 per cent growth this year, given the International Monetary Fund has projected growth of only 1.2 per cent. Photo: AFP
Frank Tang

China will forgo its original economic growth target for 2020, believed to have been around 6 per cent, and instead pursue a much lower goal after the national economy contracted 6.8 per cent in the first quarter, according to Chinese economists and researchers.

China’s new gross domestic product (GDP) target – if there is one at all – will be significantly lower than the one agreed to at the end of last year, but never officially announced, as Beijing is now more worried about stabilising unemployment rather than expanding the economy due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, they said.

The central Chinese province of Hubei, the original epicentre of the outbreak, announced on Tuesday that its economy shrank by 39.2 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago as draconian lockdown measures in the city froze economic activities, underlining the economic fallout from the virus.

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Wang Yiming, former deputy head of the Development Research Centre of the State Council, said the economic damage being done by the coronavirus in Europe and the United States would be serious, and so it is unlikely that China can generate a strong economic rebound when the rest of the world is still in crisis.

“China’s economic recovery largely depends on how fast the pandemic can be controlled overseas,” Wang said on Monday.

China could, at best, achieve 3 per cent growth in 2020, or around half of the original target, which would still be “a remarkable achievement”, he added.

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