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China’s affluent middle class could be key to the country’s economic recovery. Photo: AFP

Coronavirus: as fear factor continues, Chinese consumers seek spending on family, emotional connections

  • Retail sales fell by almost 16 per cent in March, but the country’s wealthy middle class can help put economy back on track, analysts say
  • But health concerns could hold back spending on restaurants, films, travel and other things that require human-to-human interaction
Since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak in China, Emma Wang has been setting aside the money she would normally have spent on going out and travelling but was unable to because of social distancing regulations.

As the authorities gradually lift the containment measures across most of the country, Wang does not plan on keeping her spending subdued, but rather to spend differently. Chinese households have emerged from a lockdown into a domestic economic recession, rising unemployment and stagnant income growth.

The health crisis has led Wang to believe that savings should not only be invested in the pursuit of better health care, but also in more meaningful experiences with her family.

Wang’s change of heart may signal a broader shift in consumption priorities by China’s large middle class to a greater focus on family, selected brands and online shopping as Chinese consumption may take some time to recover.

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A member of Shanghai’s affluent upper middle class, Wang said she believed it is vital for her eight-year old son, Pi Dan, to continue with his private art and piano lessons, even though he must do them online.

She also has decided to upgrade her convertible car to a seven-seat minivan to make it easier to take her parents, who live 1,700km (1,050 miles) away in the southwestern city of Chongqing, on road trips or visits to other members of the family.

“I’ve been thinking a lot about my personal priorities lately,” Wang said. “After the epidemic passes, I am going to cherish the special occasions that the whole family can share together. There is no need to cut back on these types of expenditure.”

Since March, China has broadly succeeded in raising production, with work resumption rates climbing to between 70 and 95 per cent of pre-Covid-19 days, analysts said.

But a similar recovery in domestic demand seems to be lagging. Retail sales in March fell 15.8 per cent year on year, extending declines in the first two months of the year. Spending on eating out plunged 46.8 per cent and car sales fell by 18.1 per cent in March.

The drop in spending was mostly caused by the lockdowns, which limited activities outside the home. Theoretically, urban consumers have the potential to stage a strong rebound as the country opens up and residents are allowed to venture outside, according to Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy at private bank SEB.

As a form of social distancing, more Chinese were choosing to drive to work, which had resulted in more congestion in major cities on weekdays, though traffic volumes at the weekend were still around 30-40 per cent lower than a year earlier, he said.

“Although containment measures have been lifted for most of the country, the fear factor seems to be outlasting the pandemic,” Victorino said.

“A substantial share of people are choosing to remain at home when given the option, which shows that the fear of contracting the disease persists.”

China’s retail sales fell by almost 16 per cent in March. Photo: Xinhua

Aidan Yao, senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers, said the change in spending behaviour caused by the trauma of Covid-19 had resulted in an uneven consumption recovery that could put pressure on the economy for some time.

“A particular concern rests with the household sector, where voluntary social distancing and labour market shocks can hold back people’s spending on restaurants, movies, travelling and other things that require human-to-human interactions,” he said.

“Normalisation for some service sectors, such as hospitality, leisure and airlines, may not happen until 2021.”

Shanghai resident Carol Sun is another who is voluntarily engaging in social distancing out of safety concerns even though the lockdown restrictions have been eased.

Before the health crisis began, Sun moved into a smaller flat to reduce her maintenance expenses and she continues to avoid dining out with friends because popular restaurants are crowded and empty ones are unappealing.

Sun said she would like to buy new furniture and resume travelling abroad once the travel restrictions were eased, but might switch to domestic travel if there were no other options.

Before the virus outbreak, she had been planning a two-week holiday in Ireland in August followed by a 20-day trip to New Zealand next year.

“My friends and I are wondering when this epidemic will finally be over and come completely under control,” she said.

“It’s hasn’t really been cool to stay in Shanghai in the past four months.”

Although shopping centres have seen huge declines in customer traffic because of the health crisis, insiders are optimistic about the future for China’s luxury goods market.

Tim Schlick, chief strategy officer at marketing firm Platinum Guild International, said that although China was already the world’s largest platinum jewellery market, it was still developing.

“After Covid, people will come out of this dark period and have a greater appreciation for their relationships,” he said.

“In China, people crave meaning and they will buy these products.”

Geraldine Chew, Greater China chief executive for event management company Uniplan, said the trend in Chinese consumption behaviour was changing, with people wanting “an emotional connection or affinity with brands”.

Another development that could soften the blow of the Covid-19 pandemic was the growing “digitally native and online first mindset”, she said.

Last month, Shanghai Fashion Week teamed up with online marketplace Tmall to broadcast its entire roster of runway shows online, making it the first fashion week event to go fully digital.

“This pandemic has really changed our clients and our approach to the experience of virtual events and exhibitions,” Chew said.

“In Europe, they look for more in the aesthetics and artistic approach. In China, they look for more digital experiences and engagement. The story is different.”

Tmall is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, which also owns the South China Morning Post.

With a potential market of 1.4 billion people, China was better placed for economic recovery than the rest of the world, Chew said.

“In Europe, it’s a much more mature market [for certain brands]. The Chinese are continuing to write the story about their brand experiences. This is where I think the potential of the market is in China.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Fear factor transforms spend ing priorities
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