China’s 2020 economic growth target in focus as Beijing set to convene National People’s Congress

Annual parliamentary meeting will be held this month, fanning debate about China’s economic growth target for 2020

Beijing may have to lower economic, development goals due to damage caused by the pandemic, analysts say

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China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which was delayed due to the coronavirus, will be held later this month. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 8:30pm, 6 May 2020Updated: 11:07am, 7 May 2020

Speculation is mounting over whether China will announce a growth target for 2020 at its annual parliamentary gathering later this month, after the coronavirus outbreak delayed the event and lashed the economy.

With the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) less than three weeks away, debate is raging over whether Beijing should stick to a 6 per cent growth target or lower its expectations due to the unprecedented damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

President Xi Jinping has repeatedly said that China would adhere to its economic and social development goals for 2020.

But growth of 6 per cent is becoming increasingly unlikely, after China’s economy shrank by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter amid wide-ranging virus containment measures.

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The contraction has fanned talk among analysts that Beijing will have to be more flexible with its 2020 targets.

Nicholas Lardy, from the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Beijing could postpone its goal of doubling gross domestic product (GDP) in the decade to 2020 to allow for the impact of the coronavirus. That goal requires a minimum growth rate of 5.6 per cent this year.

“They could shift the target date by six months to the end of the second quarter of 2021 … There is too much pessimism on 2020 growth,” said Lardy, an expert on the Chinese economy.