China 2020 GDP forecasts left unchanged as size of Beijing stimulus disappoints
- China’s second quarter economic performance will be crucial to full-year growth forecasts, with a negative rate still possible
- Most economists expect further stimulus measures this year if economic output remains weak amid fallout from Covid-19
Economists have made few changes to Chinese growth forecasts for this year after Beijing announced details of a new stimulus plan, with many disappointed it was less aggressive than the support package implemented after the global financial crisis in 2008.
The world’s second largest economy is now widely expected to grow by between 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent in 2020, analysts said, with second quarter data crucial in forecasting annual growth given the uncertain outlook for consumer spending and exports.
Virtually all analysts contacted by the South China Morning Post expect Beijing to announce further fiscal support amid rising uncertainty in the US-China economic relationship and the potential for a second wave of coronavirus infections.
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Swiss bank UBS said on Monday it was leaving its 1.5 per cent growth forecast for China unchanged.