Donald Trump needs China trade deal or war to beat Joe Biden in 2020 presidential election, research shows
- Guotai Junan Securities studied US elections since 1870, and predict incumbent Donald Trump currently has a 30 per cent chance of winning a re-election
- But cooperation with China on the phase one trade deal, or a military conflict, will take his chances of beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden to over 50 per cent
US President Donald Trump needs China’s cooperation on the phase one trade deal, or a military conflict, to take his chances of winning re-election later this year to over 50 per cent, a Chinese investment brokerage has concluded after conducting modelling research using data since 1870.
Led by Hua Changchun, a Shenzhen-based economist at the Guotai Junan Securities, the research claims Trump currently has only a 30 per cent chance of being re-elected in November against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden having studied previous US presidential elections.
“Trump may take extreme measures. He could either expand international cooperation, such as pressing China to buy American commodities in bulk, to help jobs and the economy, or he can opt for extreme military conflicts,” Hua said.
According to a Ipsos/Reuters poll released last week, former vice-president Biden leads Trump 48 per cent to 35 per cent, while a CNN/SSRS poll conducted at the start of June has the Democratic nominee leading the incumbent 55 per cent to 41 per cent.
China’s purchase of American goods is important [for the US economy], just as the US domestic stimulus measures
“China’s purchase of American goods is important [for the US economy], just as the US domestic stimulus measures,” Hua added. “If Trump decides to take this approach of enhancing global cooperation, it would be a big boost for the global economy and markets.”