As Hong Kong autonomy bill moves to Donald Trump’s desk, analysts focus on his previous reluctance to use sanctions

Name: What you should know about China's new national security law for Hong Kong
Uploaded: 2020-07-03T13:30:07.000Z
Duration: 5 min 50 s
Description: What you should know about China's new national security law for Hong Kong

Hong Kong Autonomy Act is awaiting US president’s signature, but analysts point to past disinclination to sanction China and Russia

Individuals and banks could face sanctioning, with experts expecting surgically targeted sanctions to avoid widespread economic blowback

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Analysts are trying to predict what action US President Donald Trump will take following approval of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act by the US Senate. Photo: AP

Finbarr BerminghamandChad Bray

Published: 9:30pm, 3 Jul 2020Updated: 11:14pm, 3 Jul 2020

As US President Donald Trump faces pressure from rare bipartisan US congressional support for a bill authorising sanctions against officials deemed to have eroded Hong Kong’s autonomy, legal analysts are attempting to predict what exactly the American leader – who has shown a reluctance to dole out hard-hitting sanctions on China and Russia – will do next.

On Thursday, the US Senate gave final approval by unanimous consent to a bill requiring mandatory sanctions on individuals found to have helped end Hong Kong’s “high degree of autonomy” from mainland China, as well as financial institutions who fund them. The bill, passed unanimously by the House of Representatives the previous day, now awaits Trump’s signature.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will then have 90 days to decide which officials to sanction, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin then having up to 60 days to identify “any foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts a significant transaction with a foreign person identified in the report”.

“Not later than one year after the date on which a foreign person is included in the report,” the president must impose sanctions on officials that could ban them from buying US property or travelling to the country. At the same time, banks or other financial institutions found to have financial dealings with these individuals could be banned from US dollar transactions and have their own executives sanctioned.

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What you should know about China's new national security law for Hong Kong

By this stage, Trump may not even be in the White House, but analysts are nonetheless parsing his recent behaviour, statements and attitude towards bills relating to Hong Kong and China and finding a leader who is not happy to go gung-ho on sanctions.

At the White House’s instruction, lobbyists and Department of Treasury officials worked Capitol Hill trying to water down the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, the sanctions bill, to shape it into legislation that Trump would be happy to sign, said a former US government official, speaking on background due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Trump also confirmed late last month that he had declined to put sanctions on Chinese officials under the Uygur Bill for perceived human rights violations in forced detainment camps in Xinjiang because he wanted to protect his phase one trade deal with China.