US trade negotiators may ‘smell blood in the water’ if China makes concessions in EU talks
- As EU-China investment treaty talks reach a crucial point, analysts say Trump White House will be watching for any concessions made
- United States and European Union share same objectives on China, experts say, but doubtful whether coordinated approach is imminent
This is the fourth in a series of five articles analysing the potential for an EU-China investment treaty, looking at negotiating positions, sticking points and geopolitical tensions. You can read part one in the series here, part two here, part three here and part five here.
“If the US sees China making serious reform concessions to the EU, it might smell blood in the water and push even harder on reaching an agreement with Beijing,” said Eurasia Group’s China analyst Kelsey Broderick. “It would likely incentivise US actors to push China hard on phase two [trade deal] commitments.”
Efforts to reach a US-China bilateral investment treaty (BIT) stretched over more than two dozen negotiating rounds, throughout Barack Obama’s eight years in the White House. The BIT talks fizzled out once Trump became president, although the basic objectives stayed intact.
According to a 2016 report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), “the BIT may present an opportunity to address and ban Chinese practices that are out of line with international investment and legal standards, including unclear regulatory and legal enforcement, forced technology transfer, and – most importantly – long-standing market access barriers”.