China GDP: economic growth in third quarter neared pre-coronavirus level, economists forecast
- China is expected to report a quarterly economic growth rate of 5.5 per cent on Monday morning, up from 3.2 per cent rise in the April-June period
- Key growth engines are exports and improved domestic consumption, Morgan Stanley says
Li Aifei still has concerns about her family’s financial prospects. Her husband’s income from online advertising has plunged as advertisers have cut their budgets, so the whole family is relying on her small convenience store in Mianyang, Sichuan province, to cover utility bills, kindergarten tuition and daily expenses.
But Li also feels that the worst is behind them, as the coronavirus has been contained in most of China and shoppers are returning. Her daily sales revenue recently has nearly matched what she was registering before the coronavirus.
“We are doing OK because people still need to buy daily necessities,” she said. “The impact on other discretionary items, such as clothes, has been far bigger.”
Millions of Chinese families like Li’s were affected by the unprecedented outbreak, which was first reported in China and has resulted in more than 38 million infections and 1 million deaths worldwide. Despite a rise in the headline growth rate, the damage done to consumer sentiment and the small business environment has been significant.
On Monday, China is expected to report a third-quarter economic growth rate of 5.5 per cent, according to the median result of a Bloomberg poll of economists, accelerating from the 3.2 per cent rise recorded in the second quarter and just below the pre-pandemic growth rate of 6 per cent in the fourth quarter last year.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the quarterly headline growth figure, along with figures for industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and the surveyed unemployment rate at 10am on Monday, China time.
China’s rapid recovery follows its swiftness in bringing the pandemic under control, combined with a 9-trillion-yuan (US$1.34 trillion) stimulus to reboot the economy. After the government splashed out on infrastructure projects, coupled with a strong rebound in the property market, exports and consumer spending picked up in the past quarter.