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Zhou Xin
SCMP Columnist
Zhou Xin
Zhou Xin

Beyond propaganda: China’s 2035 vision assumes that it will overtake US as the world’s No 1 economy

  • Beijing views the trend of continuous economic growth with absolute certainty
  • With enhanced economic power and greater ‘soft power’, China will find it easier to exert influence abroad

Beijing’s 2035 vision for “basic socialist modernisation” includes few specific targets and did not specifically mention the United States. But the message is clear between the lines that China will stay on its growth trajectory to replace the US as the world’s top economy in the next 15 years.

China’s total economic size and per capita income “will climb to a new big level” by 2035, with significant improvements in its economic, technological and comprehensive power, according to the communique of the fifth plenary session of the Communist Party Central Committee.

Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China will reach that of a “mid-level advanced country”, with a bigger middle-income group at home and “new competitive advantages” abroad by then, according to the communique. In summary, China will be a rich, green, fair and formidable economic power by 2035.

If this vision can be achieved, the natural result is that China’s economic influence will exceed that of the US. In terms of total economic size, for instance, since China’s population is almost four times that of the US, a per capita GDP that is about half of the US level would make China’s economy twice as large.

It is worth noting that Beijing now views the trend of continuous growth with absolute certainty. What the Chinese leadership is foreseeing is that the country’s growth rate may vary year to year – as evidenced by the way the coronavirus outbreak resulted in a dip in the growth rate this year – but the upward trend will stay on track until at least 2035.

The outlook reflects fresh confidence in Beijing that China is capable of dealing with various challenges. The trade war started by the Trump administration was perceived as a major threat, but it has had little real impact on the Chinese trade. And the coronavirus outbreak was initially seen as a posing a threat to China’s growth, but the blip proved short-lived.

For President Xi Jinping, it is not merely propaganda to claim that nothing can stop China’s advance. It is a belief consolidated in the comparison of very different approaches and results by China and the US in handling the coronavirus.

With enhanced economic power, China will find it easier to exert influence abroad.

For example, while the Chinese government is known for its clumsiness in projecting soft power, a growing Chinese consumer market will gain influence in new designs, products and services from global businesses through their tastes, favours and preferences, as the China market becomes too big to ignore. This, in turn, is a form of soft power.

In the financial realm, China is expected to be more aggressive on multiple fronts, from undercutting the US dollar’s dominance in global trade to rolling out its own sovereign digital currency, as Beijing pushes to achieve a financial standing that matches its economic status.

A central point from the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s latest blueprint is that China needs to get its own house in order by enhancing innovation and boosting self-sufficiency.

And for Chinese leaders, this is a reliable approach to win the economic stand-off with the US, regardless of what Washington does next.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: China 2035 growth vision far from blurred
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