China must boost education quality ‘to avoid middle income trap’, rising inequality
- China has made progress in boosting enrolments to high schools and universities, but a significant portion of its rural population lags behind
- If China wants to avoid the ‘middle income trap’, where growth stagnates and incomes stall, it will need to improve its education system, experts say
China must improve enrolment and the quality of high school education, particularly in rural areas, if it is to transition to a high-income country, researchers say.
Beijing has set its sights on growing gross national income per capita from US$10,410 in 2019, to at least US$12,536 by the end of 2025, the bar for becoming a high-income country according to World Bank standards.
But with only a low proportion of China’s labour force having attended high school, it will face a steep challenge and runs the risk of falling into the middle income trap, where growth stagnates and income stalls.
Only one in three Chinese adults aged 25 to 64 attended high school, a level on par with Mexico, and far below the 90 per cent average among high-income countries like the United States and Germany, according to research from Shannxi Normal University and Stanford University. The researchers analysed China’s 2015 micro census, which surveyed 1 per cent of the population, and data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
While all kids do not need to go to college, all children should be going to high school. This is critical at this stage of development to get all children the skills they need in the future
“While all kids do not need to go to college, all children should be going to high school. This is critical at this stage of development to get all children the skills they need in the future,” Scott Rozelle, who leads the Rural Education Action Programme at Stanford University, said in a virtual talk earlier this month. “Actually China has the lowest level of human capital in the middle income world.”