Shenzhen’s population size, key to gauging economic development, remains a matter of debate

Name: Hong Kong's competitive edge questioned as Xi says Shenzhen is engine of China’s Greater Bay Area
Uploaded: 2020-11-26T00:00:19.000Z
Duration: 5 min 25 s
Description: Hong Kong's competitive edge questioned as Xi says Shenzhen is engine of China’s Greater Bay Area

Beijing has designated Shenzhen a model city with special powers to make reforms, but the exact size of the city is key to determining progress

Officially, Shenzhen has a population of 13 million, but data suggests it could be more than 20 million, putting enormous strain on social services

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Shenzhen has grabbed headlines for its impressive economic growth and status as China’s hi-tech capital. Photo: Getty Images

He Huifeng

Published: 8:00am, 26 Nov 2020Updated: 10:17am, 26 Nov 2020

Beijing has showcased the rapid development of Shenzhen, a hi-tech hub neighbouring Hong Kong, as a model for economic growth in China, but getting a precise handle on its demographic make up remains elusive.

The city, which China plans to turn into a “core engine” of reform that will power growth and innovation in the Greater Bay Area, was praised by President Xi Jinping as a “trailblazer” in October and is home to some of the country’s most valuable tech companies.

But analysts have long debated the accuracy of Shenzhen’s official population estimates, a key factor in determining economic development, including per capita income and the size of the working-age population.

Shenzhen ranked first among Chinese cities in terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) last year at 203,489 yuan (US$31,000), based on its official permanent population of 13.44 million.

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Hong Kong's competitive edge questioned as Xi says Shenzhen is engine of China’s Greater Bay Area

However, a series of separate data points from government and businesses have pegged the number of people living in the city as much higher.

In reports celebrating its 40th anniversary as a Special Economic Zone last month, Xinhua News Agency and other state-run media described Shenzhen as having the largest immigrant population of any city in China, with a population that exceeded 20 million.

According to telecommunications network provider China Mobile, there were 21.8 million people in Shenzhen in 2017 who meet the criteria of having stayed in the city for more than 23 days per month for over 10 hours per day.