Shenzhen’s population size, key to gauging economic development, remains a matter of debate
- Beijing has designated Shenzhen a model city with special powers to make reforms, but the exact size of the city is key to determining progress
- Officially, Shenzhen has a population of 13 million, but data suggests it could be more than 20 million, putting enormous strain on social services
Beijing has showcased the rapid development of Shenzhen, a hi-tech hub neighbouring Hong Kong, as a model for economic growth in China, but getting a precise handle on its demographic make up remains elusive.
But analysts have long debated the accuracy of Shenzhen’s official population estimates, a key factor in determining economic development, including per capita income and the size of the working-age population.
Shenzhen ranked first among Chinese cities in terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) last year at 203,489 yuan (US$31,000), based on its official permanent population of 13.44 million.
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However, a series of separate data points from government and businesses have pegged the number of people living in the city as much higher.