China’s C919 commercial jet aspirations are overblown and no threat to Boeing or Airbus, Washington think tank finds

Centre for Strategic and International Studies gives a wholesale rejection of Beijing’s dream to break up commercial aircraft duopoly

Any US sanctions on the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China also said to be ‘counterproductive’, as China could retaliate by not buying from US companies such as Boeing

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The third C919 prototype passenger jet takes off at Shanghai Pudong International Airport in Shanghai. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 11:00am, 10 Dec 2020Updated: 12:29pm, 10 Dec 2020

Beijing’s plan to make its own commercial aircraft to break up the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus remains a costly pipe dream, according to a Washington-based think tank.

While Beijing has pumped at least US$45 billion into the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) to make commercial planes, including the C919 passenger jet, the odds that China can make the project a success “are between slim and none”, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies who is responsible for the research.

“Comac has received massive state funding and global attention, but it is not in the same league as the world’s top commercial aircraft manufacturers – Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier,” Kennedy said in a note published on Monday. Comac is not even as capable as its Russian counterparts, including Ilyushin, Sukhoi, and Tupolev, which have more advanced technology but have still struggled commercially, he noted.

[Comac is] a true dumpster fire of an organisation

Scott Kennedy, Centre for Strategic and International Studies

The findings were the result of more than two years of research, including a field visit to the Comac factory in Shanghai, said Kennedy, who is also the trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the think tank. The research results, in the form of a video and blog, were published on Monday. This followed a Reuters report late last month saying that the US Department of Commerce had drafted a list of 89 Chinese and 28 Russian companies, including Comac, that the United States determined were “military end-users” – a designation that means US suppliers must request a licence to sell products to them.

It could be devastating for China’s C919, as the plane relies on imports of a number of crucial parts, from its engines to its flight-control systems, so access to US suppliers such as General Electric (GE), Honeywell International and Rockwell Collins is vital for future deliveries of the new model, which is expected to take place in 2021.

On China’s commercial aviation industry, Kennedy said: “I’ve examined a lot of industries in China, and this is definitely the most pathetic sector I’ve ever encountered.” And he went on to call Comac “a true dumpster fire of an organisation”.

Kennedy also said it is “misleading to call the C919 a Chinese plane, because almost all of its components, including everything that keeps the plane aloft, are imported”.

Comac did not respond to faxed questions on the status of the C919 and potential US sanctions.