As China continues to expand its sphere of influence in its own backyard, all eyes are on the response from the incoming administration of US president-elect Joe Biden – and Asean is being described as a new ground zero in the ongoing superpower rivalry. After an extended period of neglect by the United States, pressure is on Biden to re-engage in the region, especially after Chinese President Xi Jinping voiced support for joining the Pacific Rim trade deal once sponsored by Washington. Xi’s statement came just days after China signed the world’s biggest trade deal, the rival Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a deal sponsored by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. There has been a lively debate as to whether Beijing could meet strict rules on state-owned enterprises, for example, needed to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). “Everyone is well aware of the challenges for China to join the deal; it is more of a long-term goal,” said He Ping, a professor of international politics at Fudan University, who added that while Xi’s gesture was “symbolic”, it should be “completely realistic” in the long run. China’s supply chains are more interconnected with Asean too, so economic ties … will only grow deeper in the long run Li Wei, Renmin University Nonetheless, the mere suggestion has served to highlight the US’ ongoing absence in the region. “China continues to take advantage of opportunities to position themselves as the new beacon for multilateralism in the absence of the United States,” said Clark Jennings, a trade adviser to the Obama White House, who now runs the Southeast Asia office of public affairs firm C&M International. “It is an easy statement for China to make, to position themselves as the defender of multilateralism. But if you’re serious about rejoining CPTPP, how about resolving your trade dispute with Australia as a starter?” For China, Asean is becoming more important as its ties with the US and Europe continue to sour, said Li Wei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University. “China has the advantage of geographical proximity compared with the US and the EU, so we will be more connected to Asean through infrastructure,” he said. “China’s supply chains are more interconnected with Asean too, so economic ties between China and Asean will only grow deeper in the long run.” RCEP: What is so special about the trade deal? Further illustrating this, Asean surpassed the EU to become China’s largest trading partner this year, with the US being China’s third-biggest partner over the first 11 months of the year. China’s foreign direct investment in Asean has topped US$10.72 billion this year, jumping 76.6 per cent from 2019. When RCEP is ratified – likely next year – some analysts see a continuation of the trend of Chinese firms investing southwards into Asean. “While China will continue to dominate regional supply chains for the foreseeable future, there will be greater spillover benefits for Asean,” said Jayant Menon, visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Combined with China’s courting of strongmen leaders in Asean members such as the Philippines and Cambodia; its territorial expansion in the South China Sea ; and its more aggressive trade policy towards Australia , the onus is on Biden to repair the relationship after four years in which Trump allowed atrophy to set in, according to analysts. The US joining the CPTPP is unlikely to happen immediately, given resistance to trade deals within Biden’s own party. But there are some basic steps Biden can take to put the US back on an equal footing in the region. “For starters, Biden will do well just to show up regularly at the Asean meetings, which Obama wasn’t able to do due to his inability to avoid the fiscal cliff in the US, and which Trump refused to do, preferring instead to send [Vice-President Mike] Pence,” said Tan See Seng, a professor of international relations at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. And while Trump left key diplomatic roles empty, attention has turned to Biden’s appointments after reports that he was considering naming an “ Asia tsar ” in a bid to counter China’s influence. “Under the Trump administration, the US ambassadorship role to Asean was left vacant between 2017 and 2019 – a point that further undermined US commitment to the region,” said Laura Southgate, a professor of international relations, specialising in Asean, at Aston University in Britain. The Asean states are incorrigible hedgers who welcome other players willing to engage with them Tan See Seng, RSIS With other powers such as Japan and the European Union also circling one of the world’s hotbeds of economic activity for influence – and even Britain angling for CPTPP membership – Asean is shaping up to be a battleground for superpower rivalries in the coming years. But its members do not want to be mere pawns in a wider geopolitical game. And Asean officials are quick to point out that RCEP was their deal rather than China’s. Nor will Biden be able to waltz back in and reset relations after more than a decade in which policies by Obama and Trump towards the region have either “overpromised”, in the case of the former, or “neglected”, analysts said. “The Asean states are incorrigible hedgers who welcome other players willing to engage with them. Both Japan and the EU have been, and remain, major contributors to the region,” said Tan at RSIS. An economic analysis shows that Asean – and everyone else for that matter – does better when both the US and China are involved in the region that, if it were a country, would be the world’s fifth-largest economy – worth US$3.2 trillion – after the US, China, Japan and Germany. “Nobody wants to be forced to choose between a US system or a China system; it would be very much to their detriment,” said Michael Plummer, an Asean specialist at Johns Hopkins University. This is a fact Beijing is acutely aware of, said Li at Renmin University. “The wise choice for some Asean countries is to prioritise economic development and avoid getting involved in big-power politics,” he said. “For smaller countries, once they get involved, it is very difficult for them to maintain balance, and the cost will be too high to afford.”