China’s economic expectations turned on their head by the coronavirus
- Around 12 months ago the debate centred on whether the country would achieve 6 per cent growth, a target that was rapidly lowered as the coronavirus took hold
- But the country has bounced back in the latter half of the year, in stark contrast to the US and other major economies
At the end of 2019, economic debate in China centred on whether the country should aim for 6 per cent growth the following year – a conversation that was rapidly turned on its head by the coronavirus.
As the situation steadily worsened, first in China and then across the globe, growth forecasts were slashed as the death toll mounted.
Revisiting these increasingly pessimistic forecasts highlights how quickly assumptions were turned on their heads by a disease that has now infected more than 84 million people and killed over 1.8 million.
At the time, these forecasts were cause for worry in some Chinese policymaking circles. All eyes were on Beijing to see whether the Chinese Communist Party would be able to fulfil a commitment made in 2012: to double the size of the economy over a decade by the end of 2020.
There was also some debate about whether the country should aim for 6 per cent growth to prevent a slowdown, or whether it was an unnecessary and unrealistic target.