China population: concerns grow as number of registered births in 2020 plummet

China saw 10.035 million new registered births last year, according to the Ministry of Public Security, down from 11.79 million births in 2019

The new figure does not include the entire population, with total data expected to be released in April by the National Bureau of Statistics

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The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 5:00pm, 9 Feb 2021Updated: 5:29pm, 9 Feb 2021

Concerns over the outlook for China’s population have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 per cent during a coronavirus-hit 2020.

Last year, a total 10.035 million of newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security on Monday.

The figure is not China’s official birth rate for 2020 as the hukou system does not include the entire population, but adds to data released by some Chinese provinces for last year, which showed in some regions that birth rates declined more than 30 per cent in 2020 from a year earlier.

The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019, which was the lowest level since 1961 and down from 15.23 million in 2018.

We need not anticipate further that the birth population in 2020 will drop significantly compared with 2019. The collapse of the newborn population is really here

James Liang

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has said it will publish some preliminary data from the once-in-a-decade population census conducted at the end of last year in April, including population and birth figures for 2020.

Analysts expressed concern about the preliminary reports of the declining birth rate.

“Although we cannot deduce the decline in the birth population in these regions as the annual decline in the country, we consider that idea of having two children is weak and the number of women of childbearing age has decreased, so we need not anticipate further that the birth population in 2020 will drop significantly compared with 2019. The collapse of the newborn population is really here,” said James Liang, a research professor of applied economics at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, in a blog post last week.