Because of the vast number of people surveyed, it will in theory provide the most accurate information on changes to China’s population and be a key resource for future planning.

China will also conduct a sample survey of 1 per cent of the population – also known as a “micro population census” – between the 2020 census and the 2030 census to monitor population changes, according to official regulations.

In other years, population figures are updated based on annual births and deaths data.

02:19

China begins once-in-a-decade census to gather details about its 1.4 billion population

China begins once-in-a-decade census to gather details about its 1.4 billion population

What are the problems facing China’s population?

China’s working-age population is expected to decline rapidly over the same period having peaked in 2011, adding pressure to its health and social welfare system.

The urban worker pension fund, the backbone of the country’s state pension system, held a reserve of 4.8 trillion yuan (US$714 billion) at the end of 2018. It is predicted to peak at 7 trillion yuan in 2027, then drop steadily to zero by 2035, a the World Social Security Centre report in April said.

And the gap between contributions and outlays could rise to as high as 11 trillion yuan (US$1.64 trillion) by 2050, with each retired citizen supported by only one worker, down from the current level of two, the government think tank calculated.

The number of mainland Chinese citizens older than 60, the normal retirement age at which men can claim pension benefits, reached 249 million at the end of 2018, some 18 per cent of the total population and close to three quarters of the population of the United States.

Is China’s birth rate declining?

The weak birth data for 2019 was within the expectations of many veteran demographers who for years have called for the Chinese government to abandon its one-child birth policy – which ended in 2016 – because of the damage it would do to future economic growth and the nation’s ability to support its ageing population, as fewer births mean fewer wage earners and consumers in the future.

Beijing had expected a surge in births after it abolished its one-child policy for a two-child policy in 2016, but after decades of economic boom and tight birth controls, as well as the high cost of raising a child in Chinese cities, the population has proven more reluctant to take advantage of the change than the government had anticipated.

Births in 2016 rose to 17.86 million from 16.55 million in 2015 following the introduction of the two-child policy, but the acceleration was short-lived as births fell to 17.23 million in 2017 despite the government offering incentives for couples to have a second child. 

The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says it will publish some preliminary data from the once-in-a-decade population census conducted at the end of last year in April, including population and birth figures for 2020.

But concerns over the outlook for China’s population have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 per cent in 2020.

02:11

Japanese electronics retailer to let employees keep working until age 80 as labour force shrinks

Japanese electronics retailer to let employees keep working until age 80 as labour force shrinks

A total 10.035 million of newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security in February.

What is the outlook for China’s population?

Like other countries in Asia, including Japan and South Korea, China is close to reaching a point where death exceed new births, resulting in a fall in the total population.

According to an estimate from the China Population and Development Research Centre, a think tank under the central government, China’s population could peak around 2027 – the year when India could overtake China as the most populous country in the world – and fall to around 1.32 billion by 2050.

Over the past five years, the number of Chinese women in the prime childbearing ages between 20 and 34 has been falling steadily at an annual rate of 3.4 million. This pace of decline will almost double to 6.2 million in the next five years, according to the centre.

Consequently, the country’s annual number of births will fall to around 11 million by 2025, if China manages to keep its fertility rate at 1.5 births per woman, which is considered low. In comparison, Japan’s fertility was 1.369 in 2020.

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