US ‘neglect’ drives Asean towards China in superpower economic rivalry, analysts say

US foreign policy “neglect” of Southeast Asia could drive Asean nations further into the economic orbit of China, analysts say, even as Beijing’s economic clout continues to be a source of anxiety for many in the region.

Southeast Asia has emerged as a key battleground for influence between the United States and China amid an increasingly heated rivalry that extends across geopolitics, commerce and technology.

Despite China’s assertiveness in the region, seven of the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) appear to be leaning towards Beijing over the US, said David Shambaugh, professor of Asian Studies and director of the China Policy Programme at George Washington University. Only Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines seem closer to Washington.

“There is a sense of fait accompli, that China is here, it’s so big and we have to get on the bandwagon to some extent, but we are not really happy about it,” Shambaugh said of Southeast Asian attitudes towards China.

“Southeast Asians would really like the US to be much more present. But the US has a lot of baggage in the region. So there is a kind of ambivalence about the US, [which] arises from a feeling of neglect.”

Shambaugh, speaking at a webinar organised by the Hinrich Foundation early this month, said the Biden administration does not have a set of defined policies for Southeast Asia because it prefers to be more reactive in its approach.

However, a recent article by Kurt Campbell, President Joe Biden’s assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, titled “How America Can Shore Up Asian Order – A Strategy for Restoring Balance and Legitimacy”, could provide insight into US engagement with China in the region.