China population: economic powerhouse Guangdong aims to add 1 million residents a year, even as birth rate keeps falling

At least one demographer says the goal of adding roughly 15 million people by 2035 is far too ambitious

According to Guangdong’s official statistics, its residential population grew by 6.72 million from 2015-19, thanks to large inflows of migrants from across the country

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According to Guangdong’s official statistics, its residential population grew by 6.72 million from 2015-19, and now it wants to add 1 million more residents a year through 2035. Photo: AFP

Published: 8:00pm, 23 Feb 2021Updated: 12:30am, 24 Feb 2021

China’s manufacturing and technology hub of Guangdong province has set an ambitious target to expand its population – including permanent residents and migrants – to 130 million by 2035, in spite of a sharply dropping national birth rate.

The total would be a 13 per cent increase from 2019’s population of 115 million. But some demographers say such a goal – adding an average of roughly 1 million people a year – is too aggressive.

The plan was outlined in the Territorial Special Planning of Guangdong Province (2020-35) document this month

Its release came amid growing concerns over the population outlook in the world’s most populous country, as its demographic dividend – economic growth resulting from changes in the age structure of a country’s population – has powered China’s economic growth in the past half-century.

The proposal estimates that the Pearl River Delta population – excluding Hong Kong and Macau – will reach 84.4 million in 2035, up from 64.47 million in 2019, with 90 per cent of the population living in the cities.

The Pearl River Delta, comprising nine cities in Guangdong, is a core part of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with its combined population of 72 million people and an economy estimated to be worth US$1.65 trillion in 2019.

According to Guangdong’s official statistics, its residential population grew by 6.72 million from 2015-19, thanks to large inflows of migrants from across the country.