Opinion | China population: census results to confirm a worrying demographic picture
- Population data is vital to gauging China’s future economic and social development
- So-called demographic dividend, the main driving force of China’s economic growth, looks to become a curse of demographic liability
The results from China’s once-a-decade census are set to confirm the worrying picture of a rapidly ageing society, shrinking labour force and an insufficient number of newborns.
For analysts who are trying to gauge China’s economic and social development potential over the coming years or even decades, the population data is vital. The figures are expected to be released later this month.
In fact, the data will provide key metrics pertaining to some of the biggest questions surrounding China’s future: whether the nation can replace the US as the world’s largest economy, whether China can create a large enough domestic market to accommodate its vast production apparatus, and whether China will remain a vibrant and ambitious society or become a more inward-looking and strenuous one.
The most important number is the headline population total. Official Chinese data put the mainland population at 1.4 billion by the end of 2019. That was enough to maintain its centuries-long status as the world’s most populous nation, but India appears to be closing the gap, with 1.38 billion people as of mid-2020.
In perhaps the least likely scenario, China could end up declaring that it found inflated population data in the past, and a recalculation could bump it to the No 2 spot. It would be surprising if Beijing reports a small population decrease, which could indicate that the nation’s population size has already peaked.
Compared with the size, the real “demographic bomb” for China concerns its population structure. A wave of retirement is expected in the coming years as China’s baby boomers – those born after the Great Famine – stop working. This is expected to further strain the state pension system. Meanwhile, the rate of decline in China’s working-age population – those aged 15-64 – over the next decade is expected to accelerate.
The so-called demographic dividend, the main driving force of China’s economic growth, will become a curse of demographic liability.