China population: strong birth rate policy intervention needed to avoid looming crisis, analysts say

China’s overall population rose to 1.412 billion in 2020, but the number of new births fell for a fourth consecutive year to 12 million

Analysts have called for Beijing to further relax or even abolish limits on the number of children, while also offering financial subsidies to offset higher costs

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Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million babies last year, down from 14.65 million in 2019, marking an 18 per cent decline year on year. Photo: AFP

Published: 6:29pm, 11 May 2021Updated: 10:06am, 13 May 2021

Increasing the number of children a couple is allowed to have – or abandoning the limit altogether – and providing financial support to families to offset the associated costs are policy changes that should be considered to shore up China’s birth rate and avoid a population crisis in coming years, experts said.

China’s population rose to 1.412 billion in 2020 based on the results of China’s once-in-a-decade census conducted in November and December last year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Tuesday, while the country recorded 12 million new births last year.

While the overall population rose from 1.4 billion in 2019, the number of new births represented a fourth consecutive drop in the annual birth rate after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million new babies in 2019, marking an 18 per cent decline year on year.

Last year’s figure represents a fertility rate of 1.3 births per woman, and with a rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, NBS commissioner Ning Jizhe commented that the census results showed Chinese women, on average, were only willing to have 1.8 children last year.

Without strong policy intervention, China’s new births are likely to fall below 10 million in the next few years, with a fertility rate lower than Japan’s and perhaps the lowest in the world

Liang Jianzhang

“Without strong policy intervention, China’s new births are likely to fall below 10 million in the next few years, with a fertility rate lower than Japan’s and perhaps the lowest in the world,” warned Liang Jianzhang, a Chinese demographer and the co-founder of online travel services provider, Trip.com group.