The number of new births last year stood at 12 million, down from 14.65 million in 2019, the NBS said, marking an 18 per cent decline year on year and approaching a near six-decade low.

The fertility rate – the number of children per woman of child-bearing age – fell to 1.3, below the level of 2.1 that experts say is needed to maintain a stable population.

“China’s population will reach its peak in the future, but the specific timing remains uncertain. It is expected that the total population will remain above 1.4 billion in the next period of time,” NBS chief Ning Jizhe said at a press conference on Tuesday.

While China’s labour force resources “are still abundant,” its ageing society has become a “basic reality”, Ning said.

“The demographic dividend persists, but the working-age population is slowly decreasing year by year, so the structure of the economy and technological development need to be adjusted to adapt.”

The census data confirms previous projections that China’s workforce will decline over the next decade, a trend that could weaken long-term productivity in the world’s second largest economy, as well as consumer demand and innovation.

The new data is also likely to reinvigorate debate on issues such as ending restrictions on the number of children a family can have and abolishing the decades-old household registration system, known as hukou, which limits the mobility and opportunities of rural workers.

“The brutal fact is that China is ageing rapidly. A more brutal fact is that China is getting old before getting rich,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, in a note published on Tuesday. “The share of the ageing population in China is at the level of Japan in 1992, and [South] Korea in 2015.”

While demographic experts believe there is still time to avert a population crisis, Beijing will need to take strong action in a timely manner. A complete relaxation of birth restrictions alone might not make a significant difference to the falling fertility rate.

Instead, financial incentives to help women balance childcare costs and a career are needed to encourage more Chinese to start a family.

“We must be wary of the downward trend in population growth even though it continued to grow [in 2020], because it is nearly impossible to change the population trend,” Guan Qingyou, chief economist and president of the Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance, said on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like social media platform.

Guan said he expects the Chinese population to peak in 2029, then gradually fall.

However, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Soochow Securities, estimated China’s population would start to decline in the next five years.

“The ageing population, the declining birth rate and fewer marriages are occurring at an accelerating rate. These are among the largest ‘grey rhinos’ facing China’s economic and social development,” he wrote on Weibo on Tuesday, referring to known risks that have not been adequately addressed.

James Liang, a research professor of applied economics at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, predicted that in the next 10 years the number of Chinese women in the peak childbearing age group of 22 to 35 will drop by more than 30 per cent compared to today.

“If we reduce the cost of childbearing and introduce more supportive policies for women, especially in large cities where the costs of housing and childcare are higher, I think it will also help lift fertility rate,” said Liang.

Tang Yao, an associate professor at Peking University, said China must induce more productivity through technological innovation and deeper reforms to prevent a population crisis.

“China stands at the crossroads of the transition from the mid- to late-period of industrialisation to a developed country,” he said.

What’s more, Cai Fang, vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who has run studies on the nation’s demographic changes and their impact on the economy, called for Beijing to do away with its birth restrictions.

“However, we cannot expect any miracle that can substantially increase the fertility rate and delay the ageing of the population.”

Japan’s rapidly shrinking population means that supply of goods and services often outstrips demand, weighing on prices, Cai said.

“China has not yet reached this turning point, but countries that have already experienced two turning points, such as Japan, can provide experiences and lessons that are worth learning,” he said.