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China population: why did Beijing opt for a three-child policy when it could scrap birth caps altogether?
- Concerns including unbalanced regional growth and ‘vested’ bureaucratic interests may be why Beijing is clinging to family planning
- Demographers are sceptical the new three-child policy will offset declining births, especially without incentives for parents to have children
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When Beijing announced early this week it would allow couples to have up to three children each, even seasoned Chinese demographers were caught off guard.
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“I was surprised,” said Yang Chenggang, vice-president of the China Population Association, which is affiliated with the National Health Commission (NHC). “None of the demographers were expecting a policy like that, we never proposed that.”
The policy overhaul came just weeks after the latest census revealed the number of births in China continued to decline last year.
Demographers have long warned that firm action must be taken to tackle the country’s ageing population and shrinking workforce, a problem that could weigh on productivity, the pension system, and threaten the government‘s consumption-led growth model in the future.
Why not get this matter settled once and for all by abolishing the child limit altogether?
Still, few think the new three-child policy will make a difference, especially without incentives for parents to have more children.
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“Why not get this matter settled once and for all by abolishing the child limit altogether?” said Mu Guangzong, a professor at the Population Research Institute at Peking University, who was also surprised by the announcement.
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