China’s economic growth to cool at end of year, weighed down by slowing export demand as world recovers
- Economists from Nomura believe China’s economy will grow by 8.9 per cent this year, with Standard Chartered predicting growth will reach 8 per cent in 2021
- China set an economic growth target of ‘above 6 per cent’ for 2021, and so far has seen a first quarter growth rate of 18.3 per cent, with second quarter data due next week
China’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in the second half of the year due to softer export demand, property tightening measures, higher commodity prices and Beijing’s carbon neutral campaign, economists said.
Economists from Nomura believe China’s economy will grow by 8.9 per cent this year, up from the 2.3 per cent growth seen during a coronavirus-hit 2020.
Standard Chartered economists forecast the country’s growth will reach 8 per cent this year due to a fading base effect, declining coronavirus-related demand and policy normalisation.
“Pent-up demand sparked from the middle of last year due to success in containing the coronavirus, but at this moment, we believe there’s not much pent-up demand left, and this will impact the consumption growth in the second half of this year,” said Lu Ting, Chief China Economist at Nomura.
When developed economies reopen, their consumption of a lot of the PPE and work from home products will shift to services, but China’s export strength is not with the services but the goods