When will China overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy?
- Forecasts from Bloomberg Economics suggest China could grab the top spot – held by the United States for well over a century – as soon as 2031
- In Beijing, following the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, leaders are doing their best to present the baton-change as imminent and inevitable
When will China overtake the United States to become the world’s biggest economy? Few questions are more consequential, whether it is for executives wondering where long-term profits will come from, investors weighing the US dollar’s status as global reserve currency, or generals strategising over geopolitical flashpoints.
In Beijing, where they have just been celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, leaders are doing their best to present the baton-change as imminent and inevitable.
“The Chinese nation,” President Xi Jinping said last week, “is marching towards a great rejuvenation at an unstoppable pace.”
Early in the coronavirus crisis, when China managed to control infections and maintain growth even as the US suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crunching recession, many were inclined to agree. More recently, an unexpectedly fast US recovery has illustrated just how much uncertainty remains around the timing of the transition – and even whether it will happen at all.
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But that outcome is far from guaranteed. China’s reform agenda is already languishing, tariffs and other trade curbs are disrupting access to global markets and advanced technologies, and coronavirus stimulus has lifted debt to record levels.