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01:19

China’s economy rose 7.9 per cent year on year in the second quarter of 2021

China’s economy rose 7.9 per cent year on year in the second quarter of 2021

China GDP: economic growth slows to 7.9 per cent in second quarter, 12.7 per cent in first half of 2021

  • The economy grew by 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2021 compared to a year ago, while in the first half of the year, it grew by 12.7 per cent year on year
  • Beijing has set an economic growth target of ‘above 6 per cent’ for 2021 after it grew by 2.3 per cent last year overall
China GDP

China’s economy grew by 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier to post a 12.7 per cent growth in the first half of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Thursday.

This was just below expectations in the median survey of Bloomberg analysts, which had predicted 8 per cent growth between April and June, and down from the record first quarter growth rate of 18.3 per cent.
Overall, China has set an economic growth target of “above 6 per cent” for 2021 after it grew by 2.3 per cent last year overall.

However, analysts expect growth to easily surpass that target, growing by more than 8 per cent this year.

The national economy witnessed steady and sound growth momentum consolidated
National Bureau of Statistics

“China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range,” said the NBS.

“The national economy witnessed steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.”

The results mark a remarkable turnaround from the first half of last year, when the economy suffered a dramatic collapse as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

China’s economy in the first quarter of last year shrunk by 6.8 per cent, which was the first quarterly shrinkage since records began, before avoiding a recession after growing by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. This means the comparison for the first half of 2021 is starting from a low base.

In other figures released by the NBS on Thursday, industrial production, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, grew by 8.3 per cent in June from a year earlier after a 8.8 per cent rise in May. This was above the median forecast of the Bloomberg survey for a rise of 7.9 per cent.

In the first half of the year, industrial production grew by 15.9 per cent compared to the same period last year, while in the second quarter, it rose by 8.9 per cent from a year earlier.

Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 12.1 per cent in June, down from the 12.4 per cent increase in May, but above the projection for a 10.8 per cent rise estimated in the Bloomberg survey.

In the first half of the year, retail sales grew by 23 per cent compared to the same period last year, while in the second quarter, they rose by 13.9 per cent from a year earlier.

Fixed asset investment – a gauge of expenditures on items including infrastructure, property, machinery and equipment – grew by 12.6 per cent in the January-June period compared with a year earlier. This was below the median of the Bloomberg survey, which called for an increase of 16 per cent. For the January-May period, fixed asset investment had been up 17.8 per cent.

The surveyed jobless rate, an imperfect measurement of unemployment in China which does not include figures for the tens of millions of the nation’s migrant workers, stood 5 per cent in June from 5 per cent in May.

China has set a target of creating 11 million new urban jobs and a surveyed urban unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent for this year.

In inflation and seasonally adjusted terms, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.3 per cent in the second quarter this year on a quarter-over-quarter basis, up 0.9 percentage points from 0.4 cent growth in the first quarter.

Overall, China’s economy looks to be on track for recovery, with the 6 per cent annual growth goal in reach
Chaoping Zhu

“China’s year-over-year [gross domestic product] growth rate declined to 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2021. Although this marked a significant slowdown from the peak expansion of 18.3 per cent in first quarter of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate was always going to be heavily skewed by the Covid-19 slump in the first quarter of 2020,” said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

“Overall, China’s economy looks to be on track for recovery, with the 6 per cent annual growth goal in reach. However, downside and structural risks in domestic demand are concerning. Long-term credit growth has remained weak as the government deploys policies to control leverage and calm the property bubble.

“The uncertainties in market regulation may also be weighing down short-term consumer and investor sentiment. Nevertheless, resilient external demand could help offset some domestic pressure and support aggregate growth, even if strong export growth looks unsustainable.”

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