A reversal of the situation is clearly out of the question, as the resolve of the nation’s top leaders appears to have hardened to an unbreakable point after years of pointed comments and criticism. President Xi Jinping has long denounced the after-school tutoring sector as disruptive, burdensome and in need of regulation.

Some of the industry’s smaller players have already thrown in the towel, while publicly listed tutoring giants face a difficult and uncertain future in which some may be forced to shut down, according to experts.

Local governments are expected to issue implementation plans to “effectively reduce” the excessive homework and after-school tutoring burden on students within one year, and to achieve “significant results” within three years, according to the State Council, China’s cabinet.

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Crackdown on private tutoring leaves industry, students and parents drawing a blank

Crackdown on private tutoring leaves industry, students and parents drawing a blank

“Reducing the excessive burden on students does not mean that students should not study after school or do their homework, but that they need to do their homework in a scientific manner. So, how do they do that? The policy undoubtedly brings new challenges to school and parents, and I am afraid it will take quite a long time to implement,” Wang Xuming, a former spokesman for the Ministry of Education, told the South China Morning Post.

Wang also pointed out that, in 1997, the private sector was banned from running for-profit schools in the country, yet there are many for-profit schools in the market today.

“Legitimate income should be allowed, and there should be specific provisions to distinguish legitimate income and not-for-profit,” Wang said. “The existence of privately run after-school tutoring institutions is a market response because there is huge market demand. Now we have intervened in the market – which I think is right to some extent – but at the same time, we should have corresponding plans in place to make sure this policy is sustainable.”

Following the new policy’s announcement, the municipal government of Beijing essentially got the ball rolling this week by banning all summer courses for compulsory school subjects in the after-school tutoring sector, starting from Thursday, according to a senior executive at a Beijing-based tutoring company who asked not to be identified.

Given that high school education is considered the non-compulsory education stage in China, “courses for high school students have not been impacted yet, and we are continuing to offer those classes online”, the executive said.

He also said his company has been pre-recording videos for primary and junior high students – lessons that were previously offered via live-streaming.

“We think the Beijing [municipal] government will implement [the policies] differently for the compulsory-education stage and the high school stage,” he said.

Meanwhile, some other local governments have already started encouraging residents to report any in-person tutorial services being offered for profit. For example, in the Chongchuan district of Nantong, Jiangsu province, authorities issued an official statement on Tuesday encouraging residents to report offline tutorial classes, for which whistle-blowers would be rewarded with 200 yuan (US$31).

Although a number of tutorial classes for high school students seem to be ongoing for now, some parents – particularly those of primary and junior middle school students – have already started demanding refunds.

“Most institutions cannot afford to offer a full refund to all parents,” the company executive said. “Big institutions like us have pretty good cash flow, but smaller players will definitely be doomed if they are required to issue refunds.”

Xiong Bingqi, deputy director of the Shanghai-based 21st Century Education Research Institute, said the roll-out time frame and extent of these policy implementations may vary from place to place.

He added that banning these institutions from making a profit could mean it is OK to run a non-profit educational institution that charges tuition and pays salaries, but there would be no way to issue shares or receive dividends. “It is equivalent to most institutions having to close down,” he said.

A large amount of capital investment in the after-school tutoring sector caters to the needs of students in grades 1-9. But at the end of the State Council policy, a line says that the management of after-school tutoring for high school students “shall be implemented in accordance with the relevant provisions of this regulatory policy”.

Xiong pointed out that this caveat has resulted in confusion because decisions regarding non-compulsory education have been traditionally left up to parents and students, while the government exerts more authority over compulsory education.

Demand for tutoring services remains high among high school students, and many of their parents are afraid that the new policy changes could result in their children being less prepared for highly competitive college-entrance exams.

“Local governments can crack down on tutorial services for high school students because there is a policy that they can refer to,” Xiong said. “But in reality, high school is more complicated than the compulsory education stage. So, it remains to be seen how local governments will read and implement the policy.”

And Wang, the former education ministry spokesman, suspects the policy changes have “only scratched the surface” of what’s to come in the education sector.

“We need to further deepen education reform, including the reform of the examination mechanism and the reform of school teaching content and teaching methods,” he said. “It would be difficult to implement [the new] policy and achieve significant results without further reform.”