China’s bumper harvest may cool corn-buying binge, impact progress of US trade deal

China’s agricultural imports have been closely watched by investors and businesses tracking the progress of the trade deal with the United States

China has imported about 23 million tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing year, close to US Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 26 million tonnes

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The domestic harvest season is looming and China is expecting a bumper crop after farmers sharply boosted corn planting this year. Photo: TNS

Published: 11:20am, 1 Sep 2021Updated: 11:20am, 1 Sep 2021

China’s record corn-buying spree – a cornerstone of its trade deal with the United States – may be running out of steam, with risks growing that imports by the top buyer will fall short of US official estimates.

The domestic harvest season is looming and China is expecting a bumper crop after farmers sharply boosted corn planting this year.

This is already starting to weigh on Chinese corn prices, narrowing the gap with overseas prices and hurting the attractiveness of imports, according to traders and analysts.

China’s corn purchases in 2021-22 will probably miss the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) prediction of 26 million tonnes, said Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at StoneX Group.

That forecast “is pretty aggressive and I don’t think we’ll see it”, he said.

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