China GDP: how will third quarter growth fare amid a power crisis, sluggish consumption and property curbs?
- After China’s economy expanded by 7.9 per cent in the second quarter, economists have been steadily downgrading growth forecasts for the country
- Poor retail sales, surging raw material costs, power outages and mutant Covid-19 outbreaks have slowed momentum over the past three months
Buffeted on all sides by a property slump, energy crisis, weak consumer sentiment and soaring raw material costs, China’s third quarter economic growth could drop to as low as 4.9 per cent, analysts say.
But after posting 7.9 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter, economists have been steadily downgrading their growth forecasts ahead of Monday’s official data release.
Natixis has offered one of the most bearish outlooks, predicting a slump to 4.9 per cent growth in the third quarter, while both Standard Chartered Bank and the median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg poll said the economy would expand at 5 per cent.
After reaching a peak in the first quarter of 2021, China’s growth rate slowed down in the following months
HSBC said “GDP growth is likely to slow markedly to the 4-5 per cent range in the rest of the year amid multiple headwinds”, and analysts surveyed by Reuters predicted a third quarter GDP growth rate of 5.2 per cent.