China population: census results in question after township suddenly reports 31 per cent plunge in permanent residents

News goes viral online, and demographer suspects grass-roots officials ‘falsely reported the population on the census’
Internet users ask whether similar adjustments will be made elsewhere, or if this was simply a matter of residents leaving a small township after the census

China census and demographics 2021

He Huifengin Guangdong

Published: 7:30pm, 25 Oct 2021

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The veracity of China’s most recent national census is being called into question by the public after a township government in the northeastern province of Jilin slashed its population figure by nearly a third.

An official notice released by Pingtai township officials on Tuesday has gone viral online after it revealed a 31.44 per cent reduction in the population of the township’s four local villages, to 1,195 people.

In the national census results released in May, the permanent population of those four villages – Yongle, Minsheng, Daling and Taifu – was 1,743.

Internet users are calling on local authorities to better explain the sharp adjustment, which came amid growing concerns that a steady decline in regional births is creating a national demographic crisis.

China’s census says population reached 1.412 billion in 2020, but births fell again

Stamping out rumours of an overall population decrease, Beijing said its once-a-decade census showed that the Chinese population grew last year, but that the number of births fell for the fourth consecutive year – from 18 million in 2016 to 12 million last year – while the country was also ageing rapidly.

Pingtai authorities said they had to “adjust the number of permanent residents” to more accurately represent the number of people who had been tested for the coronavirus. They also said permanent residents in the area were highly mobile and frequently travelled to other places for work.

That explanation left much to be desired among netizens and demographers.

“This incident deserves the proper attention of the public and the authorities,” said Yi Fuxian, a senior researcher and population expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “In China, the targets for the Covid-19 testing and vaccination campaign are all based on the seventh national census. Now, in just a single township in Jilin province, [they have had to make] a 30 per cent population reduction.

“I have a reasonable suspicion that grass-roots officials have falsely reported the population on the census.”

In late April, China’s National Bureau of Statistics issued a statement refuting a Financial Times report that the population of the world’s second-largest economy fell last year, which would have marked the first decline since 1961.

Population data is also relevant because it helps determine a range of public expenditures and taxes, as well as how much money is allocated for education, health care and poverty alleviation, plus annual transfer payments made from the central government, added Yi, who is also the author of Big Country with an Empty Nest.

Some posts circulating online speculate on the reason behind the change and question whether similar adjustments may need to be made elsewhere.

“How can such a small place have a 30 per cent reduction in the permanent resident population … in such a short time. Is this an isolated example, or are there other places with the same problem,” one user asked on the Weibo microblogging site – China’s equivalent to Twitter.

Another wrote: “If the actual number of permanent residents declines, shouldn’t the number of civil servants and public expenditure total be scaled back as soon as possible?”

Others, however, suggested it was possible that people had left the township after the census.

The township government was not available for comment on Monday.

According to the Seventh National Census Bulletin of Baicheng city – where Pingtai township is located – “permanent residents” include people who live in the township and have their household registration in the township; outsiders who live in the township for more than six months; people who have their household registration in the township and have been away for less than six months; or are those who work and study outside the country.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Uproar as township slashes population figure