China trade: surging export prices mask falling volumes, but turning point looms as Christmas orders dry up

China’s exports in October again beat expectations by growing 27.1 per cent from a year earlier

But analysts say surging prices have propped up the value of exports and concealed declining export volumes for some products

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China’s exports grew by 27.1 per cent in October from a year earlier to US$300.2 billion – compared with the 28.1 per cent growth seen in September. Photo: AP

Published: 7:30pm, 10 Nov 2021Updated: 11:30pm, 10 Nov 2021

China’s exports have continued to defy expectations and warnings of a slowdown amid coronavirus outbreaks, power shortages and rising shipping costs, but data has shown that while export values have increased, volumes of many goods have not.

Murmurings of slower export growth started in June due to evaporating positive comparison-base effects from previous months and the reopening of alternative overseas manufacturing bases, but after a month of softer shipments in July, growth has since gone from strength to strength.

Data released on Sunday showed China’s exports in October again beat expectations, growing by 27.1 per cent from a year earlier.

But surging prices of exports, such as manufactured products due to strong foreign demand, have driven and propped up the value of exports and concealed declining volumes for some products, analysts said.

From July to September, the contribution of volume to the growth of exports declined to around 16 per cent from 30 per cent in the first half of this year

Zhong Zhengsheng

“From July to September, the contribution of volume to the growth of exports declined to around 16 per cent from 30 per cent in the first half of this year,” said Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities.